Vanuatu Energy Demand Projections: Business As Usual Scenario  

At a Glance

Publication Date November 2016
Format pdf
Country Vanuatu
Thematic Area Sustainable Energy

GGGI recently published a report titled ‘Vanuatu Energy Demand Projections: Business As Usual Scenario’. This report was prepared to give an analysis of energy demand in the key sectors of Vanuatu and feed into development of energy efficiency targets. The business as usual (BAU) report estimates energy consumption for key sectors in Vanuatu between 2015 and 2030 under a BAU scenario in order to establish a baseline and enable identification of the impacts of activities recommended in the Vanuatu National Energy Roadmap (NERM).

The Council of Ministers of Vanuatu endorsed the NERM in June 2016 as the overarching policy framework for developing Vanuatu’s energy sector. Recognizing the importance of energy efficiency initiatives and their centrality to meeting the Government of Vanuatu’s vision for the energy sector, energy efficiency is a key element of the NERM. Additionally, there is an emphasis on the need to increase implementation of renewable energy technologies in the national energy mix. If the NERM goals for use of renewables are met, the higher usage of renewable energy in grid electricity generation and rural electrification through renewable energy projects will mean a reduction of imported fuel volume for electricity from 29% in 2010 to 6% in 2030.

The report collected up-to-date data on energy consumption by end-use, identified energy usage data gaps, analyzes baseline data, reviewed the status of on-going planned and/or financed energy projects, and analyzed the potential impacts of non-achievement of the NERM 2013–2020 targets on projected energy consumption. This report is based on relevant assumptions and develops models to estimate energy demand projections between 2015 and 2030 for the three main forms of energy (petroleum, biomass and electricity).


Overall, energy consumption in Vanuatu is expected to double in the coming 15 years. If Vanuatu does not achieve the targets for renewable electricity generation set in the NERM or the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, petroleum consumption projections will increase compared to the BAU scenario. In summary, the annual petroleum consumption for electricity would increase by 24% between 2015 and 2030, instead of the 62% decrease currently projected under the BAU.

GGGI Presents Vanuatu with BAU Energy Projection ReportThe Director of the Vanuatu Department of Energy, Mr. Antony Garae, said about the report: “On behalf of the Government of Vanuatu, the Ministry of Climate Change, and the Department of Energy especially, I wish to extend our sincere thanks to GGGI for their kind and continuous assistance in setting the foundation for the NERM review. GGGI has helped to determine how far Vanuatu has gone in terms of its achievement after the NERM 2013 launch and the trend we are currently heading towards in a BAU scenario.”